Analisis Kes Aktif Covid-19 Di Malaysia Menggunakan Permodelan Matematik S-I-R; Kajian Perintah Kawalan Pergerakan Fasa 1

Azrul Azim Mohd Yunus; Arif Asraf Mohd Yunus; Muhammad Safwan Ibrahim; Shahrina Ismail

doi:10.33102/uij.vol33noS4.425

Authors

Azrul Azim Mohd Yunus Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia
Arif Asraf Mohd Yunus Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia
Muhammad Safwan Ibrahim Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia
Shahrina Ismail Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33102/uij.vol33noS4.425

Keywords:

Model SIR, COVID-19, Perintah Kawalan Pergerakan, Malaysia

Abstract

Dalam konteks penyebaran COVID-19, permodelan matematik telah menjadi satu komponen penting dalam merangka strategi bagi mengambil langkah awal dalam menangani penularan wabak. Dalam kajian ini, model SIR (“Susceptible” – “Infected” – “Removed”) digunakan bagi meramalkan tindak balas wabak COVID-19 di Malaysia. Menggunakan data rasmi daripada Kementerian Kesihatan Malaysia, didapati kes puncak Ketika PKP 1.0 berlaku pada t=21 hari (8 April 2020) dengan kadar jangkitan a = 0.19. Hasil kajian mendapati bahawa wujud perbezaan yang ketara sekiranya bilangan penduduk yang berpotensi dijangkiti S(0) dikurangkan, di mana puncak kes aktif dapat dikurangkan dengan begitu ketara (kes aktif puncak berlaku pada t=81, dengan peratusan kes berjumlah S(81) = 8.7%). Jadi, adalah amat penting bagi mematuhi arahan – arahan serta SOP yang digariskan oleh pihak kerajaan bagi menghentikan jangkitan pandemik COVID-19.

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Author Biographies

Azrul Azim Mohd Yunus, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia

Program Matematik Kewangan, Fakulti Sains dan Teknologi, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Bandar Baru Nilai, 71800 Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia

Arif Asraf Mohd Yunus, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia

Program Matematik Kewangan, Fakulti Sains dan Teknologi, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Bandar Baru Nilai, 71800 Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia

Muhammad Safwan Ibrahim, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia

Program Matematik Kewangan, Fakulti Sains dan Teknologi, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Bandar Baru Nilai, 71800 Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia

Shahrina Ismail, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia

Program Matematik Kewangan, Fakulti Sains dan Teknologi, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Bandar Baru Nilai, 71800 Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia

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