Covid-19 and the Future Scenarios of Muslim Societies

Covid-19’s shock to the world economy is greater than both the 2018 Financial Crisis and the Great Depression 1929-1939. In two weeks, 10 million became unemployed in the United States, far exceeding the 2008 financial crisis of which 8.8 million lost their jobs in 106 weeks. Nations that were previously seen as sustainable and recession-proof also looked shaky and some countries have already tumbled into economic recession. The world has seen a trillion-dollar stimulus package injected, including developed and rich countries, to breathe a sigh of relief into the economy. By adapting the content analysis methodology and pragmatic critical thinking processes, this article attempts to provide a new perspective on the dynamics of the Muslim Societies in the future through three impending scenarios namely the Disowned, the Outlier, and the Preferred. These scenarios are significant and can be used as a reference or consideration for post-pandemic strategic planning. Muslim Societies need to have the right post-pandemic vision to ensure change towards a better future. 1 The Author is currently on secondment as the Deputy Rector (Student Development and Community Engagement) to International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM). Ulum Islamiyyah Journal | Vol.32, December 2020 70


Introduction
Most of the analyses and comments on Covid-19 whether from the economic, social, and cultural point of view implicate humans negatively. In comparison to the complex and complicated financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic is easier to understand. Nouriel Roubini in his article A Greater Depression stated that Covid-19's shock to the world economy is greater than both the 2018 Financial Crisis and the Great Depression 1929-1939 In two weeks, 10 million became unemployed in the United States, far exceeding the 2008 financial crisis of which 8.8 million lost their jobs in 106 weeks (Roubini, 2020). Nations that were previously seen as sustainable and recession-proof also looked shaky and some countries have already tumbled into economic recession. The world has seen a trillion-dollar stimulus package injected, including developed and rich countries, to breathe a sigh of relief into the economy.
Covid-19 is a pandemic that will surely create a renewed norm of human life. It will alter directions and behaviours including the lifestyles of many societies in the world, including the Muslim Societies. This article attempts to provide a new perspective on the dynamics of the Muslim Societies in the future through three impending scenarios namely the Disowned, the Outlier, and the Preferred. These scenarios are significant and can be used as a reference or consideration for post-pandemic strategic planning. Muslim Societies need to have the right post-pandemic vision to ensure change towards a better future.

Envisioning the Futures of Muslim Societies
When it comes to envisioning the future, we can discover many literatures that explores the There is relatively scarce literature on the future of Muslim Societies. Fuller (2003) in the Future of Political Islam asserts that religion has come to play a central role in politics, and the outcome of the struggle between extremists and liberals Muslims will determine the future of political Islam. Esposito (2013) on the other hand, provided another dimension of the future of Muslim Societies. He introduced a new generation of Muslim thinkers who preach toleration and pluralism and advocate women's rights. The future of Islam will be much influenced by this new breed of scholars and thinkers.
Covid-19 and the Future Scenario of Muslim Societies 71 Abul Hasan Ali al-Nadwi is one of the Muslim scholars who analysed the state of Muslim Societies and lamented the lack of the proper intellectual planning for envisioning the future (Abul Hasan, 2003). Nevertheless, the analysis was not justified by relevant data and evidence. Sardar, Serra, & Jordan (2019) in Muslim Societies in Postnormal Times: Foresights for Trends, Emerging Issues, and Scenarios offer an interesting evaluation on the future of Muslim Societies in Postnormal Times. They provided a detailed analysis of contemporary trends, thus identifying and exploring emerging issues. What is more important is that this book can be considered as a guide for the Muslims to navigate their preferred future. (Sardar, Serra, & Jordan 2019).
Mastering the knowledge to study, predict, and subsequently create a strategic future is a necessity and perhaps, is now one of the obligation (kifayah) for Muslims.

The New Narrative of the Covid-19 Pandemic
The Covid-19 pandemic caused the global system to pause and nearly all nations put in place the Movement Control Order. Residents were required to stay indoors while factories, shops, offices, and various business premises were sealed off. The number of vehicles seen on the road and pollution intensity were no longer the same. This saw the environment as being clean again. A study conducted by Marshall Burked of Stanford University unravelled that the air quality data in China during the Covid-19 pandemic changed dramatically for the better. This good air quality can save about 1400 children under the age of five and 51700 adults over the age of 70. Previous studies have shown that air pollution in China is the leading cause of 1.1 million deaths of the Chinese people a year (McMahon, 2020). Even the Ganges River in India, which is known as one of the most polluted rivers in the world, is now recovering.
The Covid-19 pandemic delivered an important message and opened the eyes of many to the opportunities other countries offered thus emerging to lead the world in the future. The real capabilities and resilience of developed countries with the sophistication of the technology they possess still failed to deal with pandemics effectively. The world has seen how even developed countries like the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain struggled and were unable to effectively deal with this pandemic, in comparison to developing countries. The military and economic strength of developed countries were not only the sole and main factors to deal with pandemics. To this day, the United States has recorded the highest number of infections and deaths in the world than any other countries in the world.
Despite the desolation and significant impacts on the socio-economic conditions, the pandemic opened a new paradigm and created a new opportunity for us. Unlike the majority of literature that affords the negative side of the pandemic, Scheidel (2017) in his book The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the 21st Century took a different perspective by stating that pandemics can reduce inequality. This book states four pillars that can reduce inequality throughout the history of the world from Roman times to the 20th century: war, revolution, state failure, and pandemics. Walter Scheidel tried to demonstrate through historical narratives that despite the negative effects, pandemics such as the Black Death and the Spanish Flu opened up spaces for humans to realise opportunities in balancing or reducing inequalities in the society (Scheidel, W. 2017). The Spanish Flu pandemic is said to have helped Europe create better health services and a modern welfare state. In other words, the pandemic does not necessarily bring negative impacts only but also creates opportunities for us to transform our societies and to improve the existing system. In this regard, this article offers different dimensions of future scenarios of Muslim Societies.

The Future Scenario of Muslim Societies Post Pandemic
The world needs to have the right post-pandemic vision to ensure change towards a better future. Mair (2020)  Covid-19 will surely change the world from various aspects. For instance, the SESRIC COVID-19 Pandemic Database recorded a total of 649,212 confirmed cases and 18,128 fatal cases have been reported in 56 OIC member countries as of 21 May 2020. It is reported that 38 OIC countries are facing a critical shortage of health workers. According to the United Nation, 6 out of 9 of the most vulnerable countries are OIC member states. The pandemic has impacted the level of production, employment, consumer spending, international trade, food security, and learning. The average per capita income level in the group of OIC countries is expected to fall from US$ 11.5 thousand in 2019 to US$ 11.1 thousand in 2020, corresponding to a 3.4% decline (SESRIC, 2020).
Highlighting the previous history, Muslims seem to be fascinated by the rhetoric played out that the 15th century, after hijrah, belonged to Islam. Islam will again dominate the world in the 15th century, after hijrah. During then, many waited for November 21, 1979 (1 Muharram 1400) to see the Islamic world return to the forefront of the 15th century after to note here that this is not a prediction of the future but rather a rational forecasts of the probable and preferred future scenarios of Muslim Societies.

The Disowned Scenario: Stagnant Muslim Societies
The first scenario refers to a situation where no change occurs in Muslim Societies. The situation remains unchanged. The majority of OIC member states continue being the most vulnerable nations. Covid-19 has exposed weak health systems in almost all Muslim Societies. There is no real and impactful measures in preventing the outbreak. Muslims societies are just followers, consumers and not producers. Even with the advent of Covid-19 vaccines, many Muslims families are sceptical to vaccination as they are suspicious that pork gelatine and non-permissible ingredients are present in the vaccine. The virus mutates and further accelerates the infection. As a result, the pandemic has impacted numerous sectors -economic, social and cultural, education and politics.
The pandemic has significantly caused direct impacts to Muslim Societies. Two-thirds of the Muslim world continues to remain poor and highly indebted. Unemployment rates remain high, freedom and the democracy index remain problematic, lack of economic development, and internal conflicts continue. Muslims in conflict-ridden and war-torn countries such as Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Kashmir remain troubled and oppressed without any viable solution. The leaders of the Islamic world remain weak and divided. The Covid-19 pandemic does not seem to change anything for Muslim Societies who merely reacts with no innovations in envisaging to create a better future.

The Outlier Scenario: The Downfall of Muslim Societies
The second scenario sees that the Muslim Societies are weakening, and even the economy  In terms of education, the impact of western countries' policies that restrict the entry of international students into their countries due to Covid-19 triggered the rise of the education system and in turn, becomes a catalyst for the development of high-level research in Muslim

The Preferred Scenario: Progressive and Dynamic Muslim Societies
Societies. In addition, unfriendly immigration policies and visa restrictions in western countries have resulted in many top Muslim scientists and researchers returning and working in Islamic countries. This trend improved the quality of research and education as a whole.
The development of a high quality education and a more independent and transparent system witnessed the emergence of new leaders who are calibre and credible, leading Muslim Societies in a more dynamically and progressively fashion.

Towards Creating a Madani Society (Balanced and Harmonious
Society) The above three scenarios illustrate and envisage the alternative futures of Muslim Societies.
The time has come for Muslim Societies to create their future and seize the opportunity for major reform. Covid-19 proves that the human element is a key pillar in dealing with the crisis and a prerequisite to create the preferred transformative future. Flam (2020)  The discourse on Madani Society is relatively not new but was popular and well-received by the intellectual community in the 1990s. Anwar Ibrahim promoted the idea in the 1990s and considered it as a community that guarantees the balance between individual freedom and community stability (Ibrahim, 1996). In the context of post pandemic world, the problems and crises of the Muslim world can only be overcome through ethical systems, human attitude and spiritual strength and not just technology. A society that adopts a value-based system where its community possess a good attitude and is not individualistic, will succeed. However, a society that continues to glorify the market system filled with people that are individualistic, selfish, and lack spiritual strength and ethic, will fail and meet with problems and even crisis. This opens up space for us where the human values, virtues, and ethics raised by Islam itself are now proven to be the main pillars of human survival, and not the reliance on scientific and technological advances. As Islam is a system of thought and action based on these normative ethics, values, and virtues, the futures of Muslim Societies will also be dependent on the extent of how we can internalize and embrace all these qualities.

Conclusion
As compared to the imagination of previous generations to see the rise of Islam in the 15th century of hijrah with no data and information like today, we can now create more realistic future scenarios. The author tries to give imagination through three scenarios of the futures